A certain, relatively small category of no-limit hold'em players never bluff. It's true. Whether because they are afraid to get caught or just have some sort of mental block preventing them from betting without a good hand, a certain, small percentage of players genuinely never bluff.
However, the majority of hold'em players do bluff. Most of these players understand that in order to win at no-limit hold'em, you can't simply wait for good hands and expect always to profit from them when they finally come around. Bluffing enables you to win hands without having the best cards. Bluffing also enables you to create an image that increases the chances you will get called when you are betting with the best hand.
Jul 07, 2017 In fact, this was probably the concept I was most excited to discuss in my new book No-Limit Hold 'em for Advanced Players: Emphasis on Tough Games by TwoPlusTwo Publishing. In this article, we’ll briefly discuss when small bets are appropriate and why you should care about having the ability to make them. Understanding Small Bet Sizes.
Meanwhile discovering how to sniff out bluffs and make correct calls is also a desirable skill for no-limit hold'em players. In fact, figuring out the art of 'bluff catching' might be one of the most challenging lessons to learn, especially for new players.
An Example Bluff... Viewed from Both Sides
Learning how to bluff well is not a simple task, but players generally get practice bluffing early on in their poker development — sometimes out of necessity.
Finding yourself deep in a postflop situation without a good hand, you realize a bluff is your only way of winning a hand and fire away. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, and by trial-and-error you learn what tends to work when bluffing and what does not.
Hopefully (eventually) you learn how to make your bluffs believable, with smart bet sizing and/or giving the appearance of logical 'lines' or sequences of action leading up to your bluffs. The well-made bluff comes after having established credibility, usually through 'telling' a believable 'story' that starts with your image and extends through the actions in a particular hand.
Let's walk through an example.
Having shown yourself to be a tight-aggressive player, you decide to raise from the button with and get a caller in the big blind.
You continue with a bet after the flop and are called. Then after the turn your opponent bets, you decide to raise with your big draws, and you get called again. The river is the , and when your opponent checks you don't wait long before confidently firing a two-thirds pot-sized bet as a bluff.
It's a credible story. You appear very likely to have the strong hand you're representing, and not just the ace-high you actually have.
Now imagine yourself on the other side of this situation. Say you're the one in the big blind with . You check-call the flop with second pair, then decide to lead on the turn only to get raised. You warily call that raise then check fifth street, then watch your opponent fire a big river bet.
Whether or not you are able to build up the nerve to call the bet, you should understand that holding on a board is what is called a 'bluff catcher.' That's a hand which by definition (probably) can only beat a bluff.
A player with a medium-strength hand on this river — hands like like , , — probably will check behind. Even players with stronger hands like two pair or a set might check, fearing the third diamond might have made you the flush you appeared to be chasing by calling the turn check-raise.
That leaves very strong hands (like a diamond flush) or bluffs (like busted straight or flush draws) as hands with which the player would bet. As you have a bluff catcher, you can call if you believe the bluff to be more likely than the very strong hand.
Three Necessary Criteria for Bluff Catching
Looking at this example, we can isolate the necessary elements that need to be in place in order to call a bluff with such a 'bluff catcher' hand:
- your opponent has to be capable of bluffing
- your opponent's bet size makes it inviting to call
- you have to have a hand that can actually beat a bluff
First off, your opponent has to be capable of bluffing. If the player falls into that small category of never-bluffers, or even if the player has demonstrated extreme tightness and a seeming unwillingness to get out of line, you needn't bother talking yourself into making a thin call with a subpar hand. He's not firing that river with something your second pair, weak kicker can beat.
Typically you're going to target loose-aggressive players who are more than willing to bet and raise with subpar hands — or nothing at all — when calling with a bluff catcher.
Secondly, you need to consider carefully the amount of the bluff and whether your opponent's bet size makes it inviting to call.
If you have some history with the opponent and have recognized any patterns with bets or bluffs, use that information to help you evaluate the bet amount. If the player routinely bets big amounts (i.e., a large percentage of the pot) with strong hands, a big bet will be less inviting to call, but if the player likes to make smallish value bets and then bets big, that might indicate a bluff.
You can also use pot odds to help make this decision. In our sample hand above a player made a river bet of two-thirds the pot — let's say a bet of $60 into a $90 pot. That would mean you have to call $60 to win $150, which is pot odds of 2.5-to-1.
If you estimate your opponent is bluffing more than once every 2.5 times this situation arises, a call would be profitable from a mathetmatical point of view. (See '10 Hold'em Tips: Pot Odds Basics' for more on this topic.)
Finally, you can be almost 100% sure your opponent is bluffing, but you have to have a hand that can actually beat a bluff in order to call.
Bluff catchers tend to be weak pairs (if you think your opponent has no better than ace-high), or even sometimes ace-high (if you think your opponent has king-high or worse). But if the board shows and you have , even if you know your opponent is bluffing you can't reasonably call. (You could bluff raise in such a spot, however.)
Bottom line — if the 'story' your opponent is trying to tell isn't adding up and you suspect a bluff, and the situation meets all of the criteria for bluff catching, consider making that call.
Be smart, though, and not overly paranoid that everyone is bluffing you on those rivers. The fact is, whether playing live or online poker, most players bluff very little. With many opponents you're going to find their bets and raises — especially the big ones — often are not bluffs but made for value.
Also in this series...
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If you play live no-limit hold’em, then your games are absolutely rife with bet-sizing tells. If you know what to look for, your opponents will tell you in pot after pot what hands they have by how much they bet.
Or, at least, your opponents will tell you exactly how they feel about their hands by how much they bet, and you can often then deduce what they have.
I recently played the following hand in a $2-$5 game in Las Vegas. I had a $1,000 stack. A nitty regular player opened from under the gun for $20 with a $1,000 stack. Another nitty player directly to my right called. This player had about $350 behind.
I was next to act, three off the button, with Q-Q. I called. I dislike reraising in this scenario for a few reasons. First, both opponents in the hand are certified nits, and it’s unlikely they would call my reraise with worse hands except perhaps J-J or A-K.
Second, when it’s close, I like to avoid raising early in a hand, because the longer I draw hands out, the more information I can gather to make good decisions.
Third, there are still five unknown hands behind me. There’s about a one percent chance each player has either A-A or K-K, making about a five percent chance in total that one of the two hands I’m most afraid of is lurking behind me. While five percent is not a large chance, when the decision is already close, it helps to swing me toward the cautious play.
I called. The small blind also called, so we saw a flop four ways with $85 in the pot.
The flop came 9-4-3 with a flush draw. The small blind checked, the preflop raiser checked, and the nit bet $60.
Here’s the first bet-sizing tell. A $60 flop bet into an $85 pot is a big bet from a nit. This player is not likely testing the waters with a draw or a marginal made hand. He thinks he’s likely to have the best hand. He may have a set or he may have an overpair. He likely doesn’t have a nine, two pair, or any draw. It’s possible he’s got a very strong draw like the A-K flush draw or perhaps the A-5 or A-2 flush draw.
He’s also not expecting to get called. With a bet this large on a board this dry, he likely expects simply to pick up the pot. He will be on alert if anyone calls him.
I called. Again, I see this as a marginal raising situation. I’m ahead of some hands he can have, but I’m behind others. He’s a nit and he may fold a hand like T-T or J-J to a raise, while of course he won’t be folding a set. If I raise and get called, it’s not at all clear that I’ll be the favorite to win the pot.
Therefore, I called. Calling also allows me to gather yet another round of information before I have to commit my stack.
The two players behind me folded. The pot is now $205, and my lone opponent has about $270 behind.
The turn is an offsuit 7, so the board is 9-4-3-7. My opponent bets $65.
And here is the payoff for my patience. This bet carries with it a lot of information. Most poker players are ruled by their emotions. The plays they make are not determined by cold, rational analysis. Instead, they are determined by how they feel about the hand and about the situation.
Nits – players who play tight and are loathe to put much money at risk without a lock – are generally ruled by fear. They fear losing pots. They fear getting outplayed (at least when being outplayed means getting money in bad). They react to this fear in two ways.
If they feel they very likely have the best hand at the moment, but they fear getting drawn out on, they make particularly large bets. These bets are designed to “end the hand” and “win a small pot, not lose a big pot.” (While many people tell me that they prefer to win a small pot than lose a big one, my preference is to win big pots.)
If, instead, they’re afraid that they don’t have the best hand or that they’ve already been drawn out on, they check or make small, probing bets.
So this betting sequence – $60 on the flop and then $65 on the turn – is quite telling. The $60 flop bet is large enough that it falls under the, “I’m good, now please don’t draw out on me,” umbrella of thought.
But the $65 turn bet when the pot is $205 and my opponent has only $270 total says, “Please don’t let me be behind.” Since he would not expect the turn 7 to have beaten him, he must have one of the weakest hands in his flop betting range.
I put him on either J-J or T-T. With a set or even A-A, I would have expected more like a $150 bet.
Given my read that I was now likely to be ahead, I decided to raise all-in. I thought about calling again, hoping to confuse my opponent and get the rest of his money on the river. As it turns out, just calling may have worked out better, as he folded J-J face-up.
I rely on these bet-sizing tells so much that if my opponent had bet $150 or $180 or $270 on the turn, I would have folded my Q-Q. He simply wouldn’t be that bold with any hand I’m ahead of. I would expect to see a set.
Final Thoughts
I cannot overstate how much information there is in your opponents’ bet sizes. This information is particularly abundant on the turn and river when the pots and bets get big and emotions run high.
When in doubt, I drag it out. I flat-call early in hands and allow my opponents to tell me how they’re feeling with their turn and river bets. I then use this information to make accurate decisions.
Most no-limit players hate playing the turn and river. They like to end hands early to avoid the uncertainty that comes with seeing a troublesome-looking card. But for me, there’s actually less uncertainty on the turn and river than there is on the flop. On the flop, it’s harder to spot tells, and there’s less information to go on. Later in the hand, people really tell you how they feel, and you can then sometimes play nearly perfectly.
If you are a hater of the turn and river, here’s my advice. Watch your games. Watch hands you’re not in. Watch other people play the turn and river. Count the pot, and look at bet sizes. You’ll see clear patterns. Add in a little dose of psychology, and you’ll begin to see things much more clearly.♠
Ed’s brand new book, Playing The Player: Moving Beyond ABC Poker To Dominate Your Opponents, is available for purchase at notedpokerauthority.com. Find Ed on Facebook at facebook.com/edmillerauthor and on Twitter @EdMillerPoker.